TODAY’S FUN LINKS:
El Nino / La Nina Resources
State of the Climate | National Overview | Annual 2012
Could Hurricane Forecasting Get Better in 2013?
Sun’s 2013 Solar Storm Peak Expected to Hit Century Low – Yahoo! News
WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
(Pressure Gradient Derived)
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
C, S FL Peninsula
(QPF 1 – 2″)
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for maximum temperatures below 25 deg F within the next 24 hours; snowfall in excess of 4 inches over a 24 hour period; or other frozen precipitation exceeding trace amounts)
Scattered Locations In
C, S QC, NL
(Snow, Near-Blizzard; 4 – 12″)
Isolated Locations In
MI….C, S ON….N, W NY….NW PA….NE OH
(Snow, In Squalls; 4 – 12″)
Scattered Locations In
E SD….SW MN….IA
(Snow; 4 – 10″)
GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY
(a review of important weather features around the world)
Ridging remains dominant in a strip covering most of the Middle East into the Indus Valley. A rather vigorous, storm-laden polar jet stream passes from Anatolia into the Caucasus toward Tibet and Mongolia. North of that wind field very cold temperatures remain in place across Russia and the Central Asian Republics. Note the scattershot convection around the Equator, a sign of a still-incoherent Madden-Julian Oscillation.
Just as is seen on the IODC image, tropical convection and forcing remains scattered with no truly dominant Kelvin wave visible on the full disc image. You can easily see, however, the linkage between the equatorial cloud region and the storm complex below the Aleutian Islands. This set up favors drainage of cold air into Japan and other parts of the Orient, while at the same time favoring increased -EPO or +PNA ridging along or near the West Coast of North America. See also the growing thunderstorm activity in Australia, signifying a weakening of the heat ridge complex there which has brought record high temperatures.
A moisture axis continues to flare southwest of Mexico, and this feature may signify that storm threats to the central and eastern U.S. may be greater than envisioned by some of the computer models. The broad trough complex which covers the central Pacific Ocean is being held to the west by a strong ridge covering the western portion of the continent. The position of the ridging will aid in delivering very cold air in Canada into the Midwest and Northeast.
The active summer convective pattern across South America continues. In what may be a sign of the coming tropical season, ITCZ waves have been very impressive moving from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean into the Amazon Basin. Bitter cold Arctic air shows up brightly in the infrared spectrum across Canada, while the U.S. retains a relatively mild temperature profile.
An impressive storm sequence, with cold air well established along its northern flank in Great Britain and Scandinavia into Russia, continues to deliver high precipitation amounts and windy conditions to much of Europe. Warmer, drier air associated with the Saharan heat ridge covers northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. In a reverse of weather in the northern half of the continent, widespread and frequently clustered thunderstorms stretch from the Con.go Basin into the Kalahari Desert
SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK
(Through The Next 72 Hours)
Winter Is FAR From Over! Bitter Cold Dominates The Midwest And Northeast….
Plymouth State University Weather Server (2)
I stuck by my guns on this forecast for winter, and I am glad that I did.
Bitter cold air is bulging south from Canada, and with pronounced +PNA ridging over the western half of the continent, this cAk dome should easily cover most of the Midwest and Northeast during the near term. While there is no synoptic scale storm at the current time to bring snow to the colder localities, two 500MB shortwaves will help to organize a) a linear forcing band from SD into IL and b) lake-related squalls in some of the prone leeshore areas of the Great Lakes. The key issue for most, however, will be the shocking drop in temperatures in cities such as Chicago IL, Detroit MI, Pittsburgh PA and New York NY, urban areas that so far this winter have had only brief skirmishes with that “wintry feeling”. This is all about to change.
….But Leaves Only The Weakest Of Impressions Over The Deep South And The West
Under the ridge complex, and below the 500MB trough, the colder values will have only marginal impacts. Most of the Intermountain Region, lower Great Plains and Deep South should not stray to far from seasonal normals in temperature. The character of the weather may be cool, especially at night thanks to the low dewpoints. But for the most part those who moved to warmer climes will escape the push of Arctic air, at least for the short term.
Continued In Part 2….