Discussion
The incredibly warm and increasingly humid weather across Texas may spell trouble on Tuesday. With a deep, full-latitude trough complex and cold front slamming into the tropical regime, showers and thunderstorms are sure to result. A mesolow is forecast to take shape over S TX on Tuesday afternoon, and this impulse spells trouble for two reasons. One, increasing vertical velocities in the muggy air over the eastern half of Texas will be concurrent with the strong surge of energy in the middle and upper levels. That implies a sizable severe thunderstorm event from C, E TX and SE OK into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the January 29 – 30 time frame. Secondly, if the low pressure center holds together, an band of sleet and freezing rain ending as snow will emerge from the lower Great Lakes into Appalachia and the interior Northeast. That could mean air and ground travel difficulties into Thursday morning.
After the intense convection moves out of Houston late Tuesday night, the story will be the cold air. Although the core of the Arctic air will be aimed at the Midwest and Northeast (with subzero temperatures possible over three nights later this week), you will feel the chill under clear skies in the Bayou City. A frost or freeze may reach much of the metro area on Thursday morning. While I think the weather remains cool into the coming weekend, there will be some moderation locally as the jet stream axis slides a bit further east by February 3.
Chicago and New York may freeze, but Houston (again) finds the mild route.
Useful Links
AHPS Precipitation Analysis Page
Air Force Weather – Satellite
CFSv2 Forecasts
The Forecast
Monday: Variable cloudiness, breezy, mild and humid with a few showers. Highs 76 Bayou Vista to 80 Anderson
Monday Night: Variable cloudiness, breezy, mild and humid with a few showers. Lows 60 Navasota to 64 Hitchcock
Tuesday: Variable cloudiness, breezy, mild and humid with a few showers. Highs 77 Santa Fe to 81 Prairie View
Tuesday Night: Strong to severe thunderstorms before midnight; then clearing, windy and much colder. Lows 36 Monaville to 40 Alvin
Wednesday: Clear and cold with diminishing winds. Highs 50 Pattison to 54 Iowa Colony
Extended Outlook
Thursday: Sunny and cool. Frost or freeze potential in the early morning. High 60, Low 30
Friday: Mostly sunny and cool. High 58, Low 34
Saturday: Variable cloudiness with a shower possible in the afternoon. High 66, Low 39
