Raleigh Weather Discussion
After balmy, spring like weather the last couple of days, we will see winter return for the next few days with much colder temperatures and a small chance for some snowflakes. A couple of upper level disturbances will move through one tomorrow and another Saturday night and early Sunday. Both of these systems could bring some accumulating snows to areas of TN/KY and to the mountains of NC/TN/VA/WV. But eat of the mountains at least over NC, it looks like both systems will be very moisture starved.
I do think though there could be an isolated snow flurry around tomorrow, particularly over the border counties of NC, however there is little chance of accumulations. There could be a stronger area of precipitation Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Right now the boundary layer is very iffy over NC east of the mountains with surface temperatures likely in the mid 30s. However aloft it will be cold, so it is possible that we could see some rain/snow mix east of the mountains Saturday night. However, as of this time any precip will be light (<0.1 inch of QPF) and probably would not be all snow unless you are in Virginia. So don’t be surprised if you see a few snowflakes Friday and again Saturday night across the Triangle, but it should not be a significant deal.
Next week looks to see temperatures moderate but not get to the levels we saw this week, at least as of now. The polar jet will retreat into Canada so this will lead to a mild pattern across most of the US. High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes, though may help delay or blunt the warm-up in the east, but it certainly as of now does not look very cold.
National Extended and Long Range Weather Discussion
The ECMWF Ensemble is at odds with the GFS/GGEM/NAEFS ensembles in the 11-15 day period. The latter want to build a –EPO/+PNA configuration and the development of a cold deep trough over the Midwest/Lakes by mid to late period. The GFS does it at a quicker rate than the GGEM or NAEFS guidance. The ECMWF Ensemble only shows subtle hints at it late in the period. This is a big factor. If the ECMWF ENS is correct it will be mild right on through mid-February with PERHAPS a colder turn after that for late Feb. However, if the GFS idea is right, we will see a turn to a colder pattern for the Midwest/East as early as 2/12 or 2/13. The GGEM ENS is a little slower with the colder pattern around or shortly after Valentine’s Day.
It is difficult to say which will be right at the moment. I lean to the GGEM ENS idea of the colder pattern but slower developing than the GFS ENS but quicker than the ECMWF ENS.